{"id":731,"date":"2026-05-18T13:41:06","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T13:41:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arabnewsmonitor.com\/?p=731"},"modified":"2026-05-18T13:41:06","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T13:41:06","slug":"north-atlantic-separation-what-might-follow-a-nato-divorce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/?p=731","title":{"rendered":"North Atlantic separation: What might follow a NATO divorce"},"content":{"rendered":"

Canceled troop deployments and delayed weapons deliveries are signaling the end of the bloc\u2019s old military order<\/strong><\/p>\n

The decoupling of the US and European armies within NATO is no longer theoretical \u2013 the process is already underway. American troop deployments are being cancelled, and weapons deliveries \u2013 delayed.<\/p>\n

The latest example came in early May, when the US cancelled the rotation of 4,000 troops into Poland, a week after the announcement Washington is pulling 5,000 soldiers from Germany following German Chancellor Friedrich Merz\u2019s criticism of the US-Israeli war on Iran as misguided.<\/p>\n

US War Secretary Pete Hegseth has also cancelled the deployment to Germany of a battalion specializing in long-range missiles, according to a leaked memo.<\/p>\n

The bigger picture: America in Europe<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

US forces have been permanently stationed on the European continent since World War II. Up to 80,000 American troops were stationed there in 2025 under a \u201ccoupled\u201d<\/em> system that is now unravelling.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Both US President Donald Trump and his predecessor Joe Biden have signaled that Washington\u2019s commitment to European defense is on the wane.<\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"German
Spain wants an EU army: What would it mean?<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Washington\u2019s National Security Strategy currently describes the EU as a\u00a0 \u201cglobalist entity\u201d<\/em> designed to \u201cscrew\u201d<\/em> the US while free-riding on military protection. In a profound break with decades of political orthodoxy, Trump has publicly berated European leaders over military spending, questioned the value of NATO, and openly speculated about US troop withdrawals from Germany, Spain and Italy.<\/p>\n

Responses by NATO\u2019s European members have ranged from outright rejection of US militarism, as in the case of Spain, to both verbal criticism and acquiescence.<\/p>\n

What decoupling actually means<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Decoupling armies in practical terms means the withdrawal of most of the 80,000 US troops in Europe, ending the post-1945 tradition of combined territorial defense and deterrence.<\/p>\n

NATO\u2019s European capitals are thus waking up to the prospect of living without the US military umbrella. \u201cFor the first time in human memory, we are alone,\u201d<\/em> as ex-ECB chief Mario Draghi has put it.<\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"Mario
Trump policies mean Europe is \u2018alone\u2019 \u2013 ex-ECB chief<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/strong>The limits of US power<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US-Israeli war on Iran has stretched American stocks of ammunition, artillery systems, and missile interceptors thinner than at any point since the end of the Cold War.<\/p>\n

US officials have warned several NATO members \u2013 including Baltic and Scandinavian states \u2013 that crucial weapons deliveries through the Foreign Military Sales program will be delayed, citing the US-Israeli war on Iran.<\/p>\n

Beyond Iran, China remains the Pentagon\u2019s primary long-term concern. Every brigade kept in Europe is one less available for a potential Pacific conflict.<\/p>\n

Europe has become a secondary theater where NATO\u2019s Euro-bloc will be expected to fend for itself.<\/p>\n

\u2018Big bang\u2019 or non-starter \u2013 EU\u2019s army plan<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, EU defense chief Andrius Kubilius called for a \u201cbig bang in defense\u201d<\/em> \u2013 a 100,000-strong standing army to operate independently of the US and NATO.<\/p>\n

The idea is deeply controversial. It would violate the EU treaty, require a new intergovernmental accord, and force member states to cede sovereignty over their armed forces \u2013 a non-starter for many capitals.<\/p>\n

France has long championed the plan, with President Emmanuel Macron arguing for \u201cstrategic autonomy\u201d<\/em> from Washington, though Paris insists its nuclear deterrent would stay outside any joint command.<\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"RT
Is France building a new NATO nuclear euroclub?<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

In practice, such a force would be a tightly integrated EU military structure built around shared command, joint procurement, and rapid-reaction units, rather than a single army replacing national militaries. Operational control would likely fall to an expanded EU military headquarters in Brussels.<\/p>\n

But analysts say the idea faces insurmountable legal hurdles: the EU\u2019s founding treaties explicitly rule out a common army, and defense policy remains the exclusive preserve of national governments.<\/p>\n

Europe\u2019s capability problem<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Europe\u2019s armies however remain highly dependent on the US for spy satellites, long-range missiles, heavy airlift aircraft, and undersea warfare capacity.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, German defense experts and industry executives published a paper arguing that EU defense autonomy will cost around $59 billion per year for the next decade.<\/p>\n

The dramatic rise in NATO\u2019s European members military spending has not translated into greater operational autonomy, though that may come. Vast amounts have been and will be spent, but capabilities remain fragmented across the bloc.<\/p>\n

The internal European scramble<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Across the continent NATO\u2019s European members are arming themselves at a pace not seen since the Cold War, citing intelligence reports of a \u2018Russian threat\u2019 \u2013 despite Moscow\u2019s outright rejection of such \u2013 in an apparent effort to consolidate the EU and to reboot their economies through militarization.<\/p>\n

In total, European NATO members spent a combined $559 billion on defense in 2025, with Germany\u2019s outlays rising 24% to $114 billion and Spain\u2019s jumping 50% to $40.2 billion.<\/p>\n

The Franco-German brotherhood is the obvious place to find dissonance. In March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to expand his country\u2019s nuclear stockpile to ensure a secrecy-obscured arsenal so that \u201cno state, however powerful, could shield itself from it, and no state, however vast, would recover from it.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"EU
EU defense head calls for permanent 100,000-strong bloc army<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Germany\u2019s Merz has unlocked the country\u2019s historical debt brake and spent billions on military capacity while private demand in his country collapses and his electorate lurches to the far right. In a speech just days after the 80th anniversary of the fall of the Third Reich last May, Merz vowed to turn the Bundeswehr into the \u201cstrongest conventional army in Europe.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Berlin remains deeply uncomfortable with Macron\u2019s nuclear overtures, while German officials have started recalling their country\u2019s past military forays in ways that are making neighboring countries nervous.<\/p>\n

The view from Moscow<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

For Russia, the militarization of European states and transformation of the EU into a military alliance resembling NATO, but without US defense and deterrence, presents a direct and growing threat. European elites have a historical tradition of \u2018marching eastward\u2019.<\/p>\n

Russia has scorned the EU army idea, suggesting that the bloc should first tackle its internal problems \u2013 refugees, energy dependence, and lagging NATO contributions.<\/p>\n

Moscow has also repeatedly condemned the EU\u2019s militarization as \u201cusing ostentatious Russophobia\u201d<\/em> as a pretext to turn Russia into a \u201cmodel external enemy\u201d<\/em> and divert attention from internal European crises.<\/p>\n

For Moscow, any transformation of the EU into a military alliance would raise security concerns and upset an already fragile strategic balance in Europe.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Canceled troop deployments and delayed weapons deliveries are signaling the end of the bloc\u2019s old…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":732,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/731\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/732"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arabnewsmonitor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}